China's latest missile in the United States in a simulated war nearly 2 million U.S. deaths

Key excerpts: DF 1 5 A at least 13,000 km range sufficient to cover the continental United States, each screen 300 to 500 million tons when the warhead of an average of 800,000 dead and 2 million were injured. If the United States 20 hit the densely populated city of 4 million tons l-equivalent of nuclear warheads, will lead to l580-2610 000 people died. Institute of International Studies of Tsinghua University Professor Li Bin in the United Kingdom "scicnccaildG10balsecur" magazine, Volume 15 l List (published in January 2007) published an article that l head for the "Search China's mobile strategic missile" In this paper, which draw on the calculation Method, introduced "Topol" ICBM wartime survival. In recent years, whenever the West squeeze on Russia's strategy, which will be test-fired "Topol" M show of force. Although the majority of such missiles deployed in silos, but its tough with the erection of a car fired three (TEL) Qunxun Linhaixueyuan in the image, still gives a strong visual impact, which become a major power that the psychological deterrence Symbols. However, the tough diplomatic posture of great power status and suggested that only the extension of the value of nuclear weapons, its meaning is of such destructive means of technology integration and application of strategy, and on the hidden, found that the chain counterattack and destroy the game. The need for mobile missile mobile launchers concept is not only a means of attack, is also the defense request. 50-60 in the 20th century, the United States and the Soviet Union both in the strongly expanding their strategic nuclear arsenals, but limited the number of warheads and delivery vehicles running a limited accuracy (circular probability error in a few kilometres from top to bottom), to the other side can only lead to mutual political , The economic center of such soft targets to combat focus, the mainstream view such as the United States of "mutually assured destruction" strategy, aimed at "Ma Ping," the Soviet Union l00 large, medium-sized cities and important industrial base. 7 O to the late 1990s, along with raising the level of guidance (circular probability error reduced to a few hundred meters from top to bottom), and the guided-missile warheads deployed on the 10,000 warheads the two sides have been enough to destroy targets more than 10 major cities in return. At this time, against the idea of fighting for change to take deprived of the nuclear counterattack ability to destroy its launch on January 1 as long as the device, even if the enemy to retain the economic strength and conventional military forces, the same can yield the government. Such as the Carter administration in l980, launched the "offset strategy", namely that the destruction of the Soviet missile silos and other hard targets, and deprived of their ability to counterattack. These ideas have been changes in the effective support of technological progress. After the 1980s, the ground resolution photo reconnaissance satellites have reached about 0.5 meters, allowing accurate positioning of individual missile silos each other: "militia" in the use of Mkl2A-missile-guided warheads, the circular error probability for the l66-meter (Later, the "peace advocates" close to 9 O m), a Soviet SS-18 V has reached 260 meters. Faced with increasingly high-precision-guided warheads, the United States and the Soviet Union the two sides of the missile silos are abnormal distress felt the pressure of survival, if we continue to expect the increase to offset the threat silos compressive strength, but also severely constrained by the cost-effectiveness, So mobile deployment was the United States and the Soviet Union the two sides put on the desktop seriously. The progressive course of the Soviet Union in part because the Soviet Union in missile-guided precision has always been resident in the wind, it started to maneuver earlier deployment. In the early 1960s, has been highway mobile SS-X a 14 "scapegoat" medium-range missiles and SS-X-l5 "Lin Segui," a public display of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The former will be a launch weight of 30 tons of missiles installed in the nickname "Iron Lady" closed the entire launch barrel, from a tracked vehicle carrying, from the kidney to the rear launch pad, launch tube to open along the vertical section. See back cover specific on the latter. However, since the early Soviet large-scale solid rocket propellant anti-vibration of the poor, in the course of motor roads to crack easily, thus endangering launch operations there is tracked chassis of the motor speed and itinerary are not ideal in INS Launch random changes in the positioning capability of the poor, leading to the circular probability of two missiles in Hong poor four kilometers from top to bottom, do not meet the requirements of actual combat, thereby rapidly Xiamaguan. After entering the 1970s, the solid fuel SS-l3 "Savage" subsequent models have improved gradually, and evolved into an intercontinental range of SS 16 and the medium-range SS a 20. Deployment are the two main highways mobility, although subject to the binding SALT negotiations, Tan Hua soon showed a trend, but also laid a mobile deployment therefore the technical basis. Until 1985, the Soviet Union began to deploy "Topol" ICBMs, to be formally enter the mobile era, as signed in l991, "the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty" (STARTl), about 290 "Topol" service. Its base from the general 9 O km, respectively, l have a four launch site, the three vehicles were equipped with 6-9 (l0O separate from the parking meters in the concrete garage). Wartime emergency situations can open the sliding roof of the garage quickly launch, or the base, the location of launch pre-investigation (usually in the forest). To January 2006, 270 animal husbandry "Topol" reservations in nine bases, including the territory of the Russian Plesetsk, under the Taji Er, Novosibirsk and Irkutsk, the two were in Belarus In l996 in November to withdraw. Than "Topol" were later shown with a 24-SS "scalpel"-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles of the (Sudanese side called a Rs 22 v). From l987 to l991, serving in the Soviet Union disintegrated, the model has Beuchee special, Kostroma and the Krasnoyarsk in a rail position, the deployment of a total of 33. As the bombs in the main part of Ukraine created by the design of the South, the accessories in l991, declared that the cut-off, the remaining "scalpel" to August 2005 was forced to retire and destroy all. Parts of the United States in l979 began a comprehensive development of the "peace advocates", the Carter administration had the idea of a variety of missile deployment programme. The more mature the first is "more protective bunkers" (MPS), particularly his 30 in the Nevada desert, and I for each missile build 23 independent reinforced bunkers, connected between each of the road, so all 2 O0 a "peace To defend the "4600 will total between the bunkers to Tengnue flash, and fixed-mobile sentinel in the region, the total cost of about 80 billion U.S. dollars. But which is subject to an area of 12,800 km. But also depends on the Soviet Union to comply with treaty obligations, because the other party can now carry 10 missiles at the SSl8 the first expansion to bring 30 to 40 warheads, with Katyusha rockets the reckless way the looting of these areas. Sino-US nuclear war simulation A hypothetical: U.S. pre-emptive The main means of the United States more and more will be deployed to the Pacific region of Ohio-class ballistic missile nuclear submarines, the area usually have two to maintain cruising state, l5 minutes can be 24 "binary Ji" 2 missile launch (per Chi six warheads, a total of 288 warheads). 20 assumptions used 455,000 tons equivalent of the W88 nuclear warhead, the explosive way to attack a mountain of Henan 20 km distance between the DF lO a 5 A silo, firing distance of about 7,000 kilometers, the missile flight about 30 minutes. In addition to the destruction of silos, W88 warhead form the mushroom cloud as high as l2000 metres, 20 warheads of the radioactive dust will be pushed east-southeast, resulting in a l000-km-long narrow K-free zone, at 1.2 a 14,000 km: Outdoor staff of almost zero probability of survival ,3.2-5 .6 000 km. The scope will also be a serious radiation disease. If you use 60 W88 warheads, even to take protective measures, will also lead to 3.5 million people were killed and 7.7 million people were injured, mainly in Henan. Anhui and Jiangsu (Nanjing, the radiation will be more than 50 Rem). In the absence of any protection, the number of casualties could reach l800 million. Leave no 2: China to counter U.S. cities China's limited number of nuclear weapons, the United States can hardly pose a threat to nuclear power circle, thus to combat the city only a standard move-deterrence. DF at least a 5 A range of 13,000 km to cover the continental United States, each screen 300 to 500 million tons when the warhead of an average of 800,000 dead and 2 million were injured. If the United States 20 hit the densely populated city of 4 million tons l-equivalent of nuclear warheads, will lead to l580-2610 000 people died. Will be radioactive dust throughout the entire United States and North America drift to the east. U.S. estimate: China by the year 2015 there will be 75-100 nuclear warheads, when the King of about 93.75 million tons. Including 20 DF-5A 400-ton warhead and a 55 DF 31 A of 250,000 tons of warheads. In addition to deterrence 20 population of more than 750,000 U.S. cities, but also includes 55 million population of 25-75 medium-sized cities, the total number of casualties will be more than 50 million, accounting for 16 percent of the U.S. population. Even after a 31 A DF from all alternative DF 1 5 A, only 20 when the stack 250,000 tons of warheads, can also result l200 million (air explosion) and 600-800 million (the explosion) casualties. A certain type of road mobile missile estimate the survival of the (projected as the following articles translated from Professor Li Bin) assumption by mobile ballistic missile early-warning after the sprint to take mobile and submarine-launched missiles to the United States with the quote from 4000, attacks (the waters east of Guam ), The flight time of about l4 minutes. The mobile land-based missiles in road density of 0.17 km / km, when it reached the enemy warheads in which a circular area with a total length of roads 0.17 Ⅱ R. . l0 million tons of equivalent 2.875 km radius of destruction of warheads. Calculation indicates that if the three land-based missile car in the mountains, the road to four kilometres per hour on 2 O (semi-trailer safety speed limit), just two warheads will be destroyed l vehicles If the speed to 40 kilometers per hour (with the car Plain-speed), a 16 need 8; speed of 90 kilometers will need 40 more. Offensive to a more reasonable price for a 2-l6 l destroyed vehicles, 20 vehicles will consume 40 3 a 320 warheads. U.S. submarine-based ballistic missiles with l632-lO million tons equivalent of the W76 warheads and 384 W88 warheads (there are land-based intercontinental ballistic missile warheads 1050 w88). If the level of available technology to offset all the submarine-based ballistic missiles with the United States, the number of mobile missile from the need to at least 20 pieces of more than l20. The costs are not commitments, but do not forget that under such circumstances, after all, most of the land-based missiles will be destroyed and scattered the remaining missiles capable of producing nuclear retaliation how much power it is difficult to predict. Of course, the United States, the situation is extremely inefficient way to combat, we must strengthen our intelligence capabilities and weaken the effect of mobility. The United States via satellite found the location of the land-based missile is not difficult, but the real-time tracking capability has not been perfect. Continued need for all-weather surveillance, "the ground moving target instructions ability to" space-based synthetic aperture radar. Assumption that the land-based missile era of peace from time to time to take mobility, concealment conversion position to (slow traffic to avoid being targeted, because the higher the speed, the easier it is to be found radar. There is also no need to carry a nuclear warhead, before the war only by small vehicles In addition to the positions), while the U.S. in 1000 km of low-Earth orbit deployment of 2 l 3.5 days Ji Leida, can detect radar reflection lO-meter section. The minimum speed of 2.4 km / h goal. When observing the level of anti Ji Leida angle of less than 9.5, the target will be trees on both sides of the road block, and the distance between vehicles when the missile l0-metre-high three-tier buildings within three meters on, the level of observation satellite angle can not be less than 5 l degrees. Taken together, days Ji Leida found standard missiles on the road to the probability of less than 24 percent (more than 45 tilt in the slope of the mountains, the probability of detection is only slightly more than 25 per cent). In addition, the existence of days Ji Leida diameter of about 560 km of "Bottom-day", within the framework of this activity can not detect targets (targets because the radial velocity is too low), but satellite flying 560 kilometers only about one minute, the goal is Difficult interested in the "hole". Similarly, the objectives of the road to stop or vertical direction and the radar beam, will be temporarily evade radar detection ...... Although these opportunities continue for a short, it is often radar tracking indeed be interrupted, if other vehicles were set interference , Accurately track the satellite and missile meticulous arrangements for the road route and time, can not maintain 770 seconds was found, this missile could be hidden on car 4.3 km. At present, we must actively developing missiles of a car used in radar absorbing coating on the cover of false targets (such as disguised as a container trucks). According to calculations, the radar reflection cross-section of different objectives, for tracking the number of satellites have great access. In short, the United States, China established the destruction of all nuclear-weapon capacity is not easy, but if only to maintain the number of Chinese missiles and dozens of single motor can not bring reliable viability.